How to update what you believe about a team or a player as the evidence comes in, and where the starting beliefs come from.
2 parts Beginner to Intermediate
Start at part 1A new signing scores his first four penalties. Bayesian thinking combines what you believed before with what you've just seen, and shows why a perfect start should nudge your opinion, not replace it.
Beginner Part 1
Early-season league tables mislead. Over 550 Scottish team-seasons, only a third of a team's early form carried on. Bayesian thinking predicted exactly how much, using a prior measured from the data.
Intermediate Part 2