Football's favourite claims, tested against the data. Some survive.
"They've had eight corners, they're all over them." Over 5,877 Scottish Premiership matches, the side with more corners won only 44% of the time, and once you know the shots, corners add nothing.
Beginner
"Forget the stats, look at the form." Over 26 Scottish Premiership seasons, a side's shot difference predicted its next six games better than its recent points did, and a gap of eight points in form shrank to under one.
Intermediate
Fans, pundits and managers all say home advantage is worth a goal. Over 18,000 Scottish league matches since 2000/01 say it is worth about a quarter of one.
Beginner
"The table never lies," they say at the end of every season. Over 26 Scottish Premiership seasons, luck alone moves a team's points total by about eight either way: enough to reshuffle mid-table, but not enough to fake a title.
Intermediate
Shots get dismissed as a vanity stat. Over 5,877 Scottish Premiership matches, the side with more shots won more than twice as often as it lost. But the side with more shots and fewer on target lost more than half the time.
Beginner
"Two-nil is the most dangerous lead in football." Over 10,000 Scottish league matches, a 2–0 half-time lead was won 92% of the time and lost about one time in forty.
Beginner